EXPLORATION ON STATE FRAGILITY AND ETHNIC CONFLICT: A POLITICAL ANALYSIS OF KILLINGS IN BENUE STATE.

1.1 Background to the Study State fragility and ethnic conflict are globally recognized as interlinked challenges threatening peace, governance, and sustainable development. Fragile states are typically characterized by weak institutions, limited monopoly over the use of force, and eroded public trust in governance structures (OECD, 2022). These structural deficiencies create fertile ground for internal strife, identity-based violence, and non-state armed actors to thrive. The World Bank (2023) estimates that by 2030, nearly 60% of the world’s poor will live in fragile and conflict-affected situations, underscoring the urgent need to address fragility as both a governance and development issue. Across Latin America, the Middle East, and parts of Asia, ethnic and sectarian identities have been mobilized within fragile state environments, often resulting in large-scale violence and humanitarian crises. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the nexus of state fragility and ethnic conflict has manifested in several complex emergencies, from South Sudan’s protracted civil war to Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis and Cameroon’s Anglophone conflict. These cases reveal the limitations of postcolonial state structures in managing ethnic pluralism and delivering public goods equitably. The African Union (2021) emphasizes that while the continent has made gains in electoral democracy, deep structural inequalities and institutional weakness continue to fuel identity-based violence. Ethnic grievances, when met with political exclusion and state incapacity, escalate into full-blown conflict, often beyond the state’s control. Nigeria presents one of the most acute cases of state fragility in West Africa. Although a federal republic with significant oil wealth and a vibrant civil society, the Nigerian state has consistently struggled to manage its vast ethnic diversity and address regionally rooted grievances. From Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East, to separatist agitation in the South-East, and banditry in the North-West, Nigeria’s security architecture is increasingly overstretched. Akinola and Uzodike (2022) argue that Nigeria exhibits features of a “fragile leviathan”—a state that retains formal power structures but lacks effective control over large swathes of its territory. Within this broader context, the North Central zone—particularly Benue, Plateau, and Nasarawa States—has emerged as a hotspot of ethnic contestation and violent conflict. The farmer-herder crisis, largely involving Tiv and Idoma farming communities against Fulani pastoralists, is rooted in land disputes, weak governance of natural resources, and the absence of functional conflict resolution mechanisms. Unlike conventional criminal violence, these confrontations are often framed and experienced as ethnic cleansing or communal siege, further deepening mistrust and undermining national integration (Ezeibe et al., 2022). In recent years, the frequency, scale, and brutality of these attacks have drawn global attention. Reports by Amnesty International (2021) and Human Rights Watch (2023) highlight patterns of impunity, delayed state response, and selective justice as key enablers of the violence. While the federal government has launched various security operations, including “Operation Whirl Stroke,” their impact has been uneven, leaving many communities—such as those in Benue—exposed and disillusioned. The failure to effectively address these issues not only undermines state legitimacy but also creates conditions for ethnic entrepreneurs to mobilize violence for political or economic gain. Against this macro-context, this study shifts focus to the killings in Yelwata, a flashpoint community in Benue State, as a case study to explore the deeper political dynamics of ethnic conflict under conditions of state fragility. 1.2 Statement of the Problem The surge in ethnically targeted violence in North Central Nigeria, particularly in Benue, Plateau, and Nasarawa States, has generated widespread alarm. Fulani pastoralist attacks in these areas—ranging from the January 2018 killings in Benue to the December 2022 attacks in Nasarawa—reflect a troubling pattern of ethnicized violence and state inertia. While national security forces are occasionally deployed, their responses are often reactive, fragmented, and uneven, allowing perpetrators to strike repeatedly. The killings in Yelwata exemplify this systemic problem, where security forces arrive late or are perceived to collude with aggressors, further eroding public trust in state institutions. Benue State, often referred to as the “Food Basket of the Nation,” has over the past decade become synonymous with persistent conflict and internal displacement. In 2018, over 70 people were killed in coordinated attacks on Guma and Logo LGAs by suspected Fulani herdsmen, igniting national outrage and a wave of reprisal killings. More recent attacks in Yelwata, a border community in Guma LGA, reveal an entrenched pattern: rural communities are targeted, security response is either delayed or absent, and perpetrators are rarely prosecuted. This creates a sense of abandonment among affected populations and fosters a cycle of vengeance, displacement, and instability (Okoli & Iortyer, 2021). Scholars like Ezeibe et al. (2022) have documented how ethnic conflicts in Nigeria erode governance by diminishing state legitimacy and capacity, often pushing affected communities toward self-help and militia formation. Moreover, violence disrupts agricultural cycles, depletes local economies, and exacerbates food insecurity. Despite the extensive research on farmer-herder clashes, most analyses aggregate data across large areas, thereby overlooking nuanced local contexts such as Yelwata, where specific historical, political, and spatial dynamics shape conflict outcomes. This absence of localized empirical studies hampers the development of targeted, sustainable conflict mitigation strategies. Furthermore, the intersection between state fragility and public health implications of such conflicts remains underexplored. Displacement due to violence increases vulnerability to disease, disrupts access to healthcare, and deteriorates mental health, especially among women and children. Yet, few studies link state weakness, ethnic violence, and human development in a way that reflects the lived experiences of affected communities. This study, therefore, fills a critical gap by providing a localized political analysis of ethnic killings in Yelwata, within the broader context of state fragility and national security challenges. Although empirical studies have explored the broader herder-farmer conflict in Nigeria, linking it to ecological stress, migration patterns, and governance failure (Abbass, 2020; Nwankwo & Akinyemi, 2021). However, fewer works have provided a focused political analysis of localized sites of conflict such as Yelwata, where the dynamics are shaped not only by land disputes but also by ethnic narratives, weak state presence, and strategic positioning. This gap limits both academic understanding and policy responsiveness. Without localized studies, national strategies risk misalignment with on-ground realities, further aggravating state-citizen disconnection. The implications of this violence go beyond death tolls. Thousands have been displaced, farmland abandoned, schools shut down, and traditional authorities disempowered. The state’s inability to provide security or justice weakens its legitimacy and incentivizes self-help and communal militarization. This study seeks to analyze the killings in Yelwata within the framework of state fragility and ethnic conflict, offering insights that could inform conflict-sensitive governance and peacebuilding in Nigeria. 1.3 Objectives of the Study 1. To analyze the nature and patterns of ethnic conflict in Yelwata, Benue State. 2. To examine the manifestations of state fragility in the context of rural violence. 3. To assess the perceptions of local residents regarding government responses to the killings. 4. To explore the implications of ethnic conflict and state fragility for national security and social cohesion. 1.4 Research Questions 1. What are the key drivers of ethnic conflict in Yelwata? 2. How does state fragility contribute to the persistence of violence in Benue State? 3. What are the perceptions of local residents concerning the effectiveness of state institutions in addressing the killings? 4. What broader implications does this conflict have for national stability and ethnic relations? 1.5 Research Hypotheses H₀1: There is no significant relationship between perceived state fragility and the frequency of ethnic killings in Yelwata. H₀2: Ethnic conflict in Benue State has no significant impact on national security and cohesion. 1.6 Significance of the Study This study is of scholarly significance to political scientists and conflict analysts seeking to understand the nexus between state fragility and communal violence. It contributes to empirical literature by contextualizing abstract theories of governance failure within localized case studies. Additionally, it challenges dominant securitized narratives by foregrounding civilian experiences and perceptions. To policy practitioners, this research provides evidence-based insights necessary for designing inclusive conflict prevention frameworks. By analyzing the failures of conventional security responses, it encourages the development of community-centered and justice-driven approaches to conflict resolution. For the broader society, particularly communities in conflict-prone regions, the study serves as an advocacy tool for strengthening state accountability, equitable governance, and ethnic reconciliation. It underscores the urgency of reforming state institutions to restore trust and legitimacy in post-conflict regions. 1.7 Scope of the Study This study focuses on the political dimensions of state fragility and ethnic conflict in Benue State, with Yelwata community as the case study. Variables examined include institutional performance, patterns of ethnic violence, local perceptions of government response, and implications for national cohesion. The population of interest includes community leaders, victims, local officials, and youth in Yelwata, drawn through purposive sampling to capture experiential and political perspectives. The geographical focus allows for depth of analysis while maintaining relevance to broader national concerns. 1.8 Operational Definition of Terms State Fragility: The diminished capacity of state institutions to provide security, justice, and public services, often manifesting in lawlessness and citizen mistrust. Ethnic Conflict: Hostile encounters between ethnic groups, often driven by resource competition, historical grievances, or political exclusion. Political Analysis: The systematic examination of governance structures, institutional dynamics, and power relations shaping a socio-political phenomenon. Perception of State Legitimacy: The degree to which citizens believe state institutions are fair, responsive, and protective of their interests.