AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF ETHNIC IDENTITY ON ELECTORAL OUTCOMES IN NIGERIA

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study Undoubtedly, Nigeria stands as one of the most ethnically diverse nations in the world. As the most populous Black nation, with an estimated population of approximately 186 million people (Worldometers, 2022), Nigeria is composed of over 250 ethnic groups, each with its own unique subcultures (Olayode, 2019). Despite this vast diversity, the nation’s political framework is predominantly shaped by three major ethnic groups: the Yoruba, the Hausa, and the Igbo. While numerous other ethnic groups exist, they are often categorized as minorities. The presence of these minority subgroups within a landscape dominated by the three major ethnic blocs has given rise to concerns about political marginalization. Smaller ethnic communities fear domination by larger and more politically influential groups. In response to these perceived threats, both major and minor ethnic groups engage in political strategies either to sustain their dominance or to resist marginalization. This dynamic is especially pronounced during election periods, where voter behavior is heavily influenced by ethnic affiliations. Since Nigeria’s independence, presidential elections have often triggered heightened tension, anxiety, and widespread controversy. This tension is particularly evident in campaign rhetoric, which is frequently laced with ethnically charged and divisive messages. A notable example was the 2015 presidential election, widely considered one of the most competitive and contentious in Nigeria’s post-colonial history. The election took place against a backdrop of severe insecurity, primarily due to the insurgency led by the Boko Haram group. In the lead-up to the elections, tensions between the northern and southern regions escalated. Many northerners viewed the election as a critical opportunity to reclaim the presidency, which they believed would address what they perceived as the economic and political marginalization of the northern region (Olayode, 2019). Elections are a cornerstone of liberal and participatory democracy, offering a mechanism through which individuals or groups select their leaders in a legitimate and structured manner. As democratic instruments, elections differ across political systems but remain integral to the expression of popular will (Robert & Obioha, 2020). Ujo (2018) emphasizes a distinction between elections and voting. While “election” refers to the broader process—including planning, voter registration, constituency delineation, polling arrangements, vote casting, vote counting, and result announcement—“voting” denotes the specific act of choosing a candidate among various options. The extent to which elections reinforce democratic consolidation, especially in transitional or developing democracies, is closely linked to the factors that influence voters' decisions. Numerous studies (e.g., Norris & Mattes, 2021; Glaeser, 2021; Posner, 2020) have explored how ethnic identity shapes electoral behavior. These studies suggest that political elites in many African states often manipulate ethnic divisions to secure electoral victories, thereby reinforcing ethnic-based voting patterns. In the Nigerian context, historical ethnic, regional, and religious cleavages continue to define the political process and exacerbate divisions that have existed since independence. In light of these realities, this study seeks to investigate the extent to which ethnicity influences electoral outcomes in Nigeria. 1.2 Statement of the Problem The Nigerian polity is marked by significant ethnic fragmentation and pluralism, which has fueled the rise of ethnic militias and deepened inter-ethnic conflicts across the country. Ethnicity continues to be a major obstacle to the effective practice of democracy, particularly through its manifestation in ethnic bloc voting. Since independence, ethnic considerations have played a defining role in the political architecture of Nigeria (Olayode, 2019). Ethnicity has historically shaped the formation of political parties in the country. During the First Republic, political parties often emerged from ethnic and socio-cultural associations, which inevitably imbued these parties with ethnic identities. As a result, voting behavior during elections has been largely shaped by ethnic affiliations, leading to electoral outcomes that reflect ethno-regional loyalties rather than issue-based or meritocratic considerations. However, while ethnicity is undoubtedly a significant factor, it is not the sole determinant of electoral outcomes in Nigeria. Other influential variables include political financing, religious affiliations, social status, party loyalty, and the personal charisma of candidates. These dynamics illustrate that the interplay of multiple factors shapes voter decisions and election results. Given the enduring salience of ethnicity alongside these additional influences, this study aims to critically examine the impact of ethnicity on the outcome of elections in Nigeria. 1.3 Objective of the Study The primary objective of the study is to examine the Influence of Ethnic Identity on Electoral Outcomes in Nigeria.. The specific objectives is as follows: i.To find out the extent ethnicity influences the choice of candidate a political party. ii.To determine the extent ethnicity influences the voting behavior of voters during election. iii.To examine the implication of ethnical influence on the outcome of an election. 1.4 Research Questions The following questions have been prepared for this study: i.What is the extent ethnicity influence the choice of candidate by a political party? ii.What is the extent ethnicity influences the voting behavior of voters during election? iii.What is he implication of ethnical influence on the outcome of an election? 1.5 Research hypotheses H0: Ethnicity does not have an impact on election outcome in Nigeria Ha: Ethnicity have an impact on election outcome in Nigeria 1.6 Significance of the Study This study will be significant to politicians, Nigerian government and the various political parties operating in the country as it will expose the dangers of allowing ethnicity cloud our judgement in the choice of a political leader, as if a leader who is not fit for a political seat is elected into office due to ethnicity then the entire populace suffers for this action throughout the duration of the persons tenure. This study is significant to the academic community as it will contribute to the existing literature. 1.7 Scope of the Study The scope of this study borders on the Influence of Ethnic Identity on Electoral Outcomes in Nigeria.. The study will cut across the extent ethnicity influences the choice of candidate a political party, the extent ethnicity influences the voting behavior of voters during election, and the implication of ethnical influence on the outcome of an election 1.8 Limitation of the Study Like in every human endeavour, the researchers encountered slight constraints while carrying out the study. Insufficient funds tend to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature, or information and in the process of data collection (internet, questionnaire, and interview), which is why the researcher resorted to a moderate choice of sample size. More so, the researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. As a result, the amount of time spent on research will be reduced. 1.9 Definition of Terms Ethnicity: the quality or fact of belonging to a population group or subgroup made up of people who share a common cultural background or descent Election: a formal and organized choice by vote of a person for a political office or other position.