A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN THE 2019 AND 2023 NIGERIAN ELECTIONS

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study The electoral process in Nigeria has evolved into a highly contentious and violent affair, aligning with former President Obasanjo’s description of it as a ruthless and unforgiving battle. In practice, political figures and their followers have turned elections into hostile confrontations, where both participants and their supporters often face life-threatening risks while awaiting outcomes in which they have been actively involved. The core motivation for political aspirants lies in the pursuit of power at all costs, often with little or no regard for the loss of human life (Alao, 2021). Historically, elections in Nigeria have been consistently associated with violent disruptions, destruction, and harm inflicted upon rivals. These acts include killings, arson, assaults, and even vandalism, often committed by hired thugs, loyal party followers, and sometimes by security personnel aligned with certain political ambitions. The concept of electoral contests was first introduced by the colonial government in Nigeria in response to growing nationalist demands for involvement in governance. With the electoral principles established in 1922, Nigerians experienced their initial opportunity to contest and occupy selected political offices. Despite the limitations on voting rights and representation, this development was seen as a milestone by nationalists pushing for democratic governance and broader citizen participation (Ebobueze & Ojirika, 2017). Following the 1922 introduction of elections, several electoral exercises were conducted across different regions to elect representatives at various levels. According to Ita (2022), the 1959 general elections were pivotal, as they laid the groundwork for Nigeria’s attainment of independence. Since then, various elections have been conducted during both transitions between military and civilian regimes and within civilian-to-civilian administrations. From 1964 through 2015, every election cycle in Nigeria has been marred by significant irregularities and violence. Nigerian politicians have normalized the expectation of casualties as part of their strategy for gaining control. Over the years, electoral violence has grown more elaborate, while politicians and their allies remain relentless in pursuing this harmful practice. For example, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) reported 967 documented cases of electoral violence during the 2007 elections. These incidents included kidnapping, killings, protests, intimidation, physical assaults, and destruction of campaign materials. In addition, the 2007 elections resulted in the deaths of 300 people. Similarly, the April 2011 presidential election in Northern Nigeria resulted in over 800 fatalities, making it one of the deadliest cases of post-election violence in the country’s history (Falana, 2023). Based on an extensive review by the CLEEN Foundation in its “Third Security Threat Assessment,” 15 states in Nigeria were flagged as highly volatile and at significant risk of violence during the 2015 elections (FrankCollins, 2015). The 2019 and 2023 general elections were also plagued by violent disruptions, which appeared to undermine democratic development in Nigeria. These elections were vital steps toward restoring citizen sovereignty and ensuring the populace could elect their leaders through a fair and credible process. While Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999 was a monumental achievement, the electoral process faced several obstacles (Ikyase & Egberi, 2015). Electoral misconduct and violent episodes cast a shadow over otherwise progressive developments. Despite efforts to secure transparent elections, irregularities such as voter intimidation, ballot box tampering, vote buying, and manipulation of results persisted in the 1999 elections. Motivated by a deep yearning for change, Nigerians actively participated in this critical juncture of their national journey (Kohnert, 2023). The peaceful conduct of the 1999 election ushered in the democratic election of Olusegun Obasanjo as Nigeria’s president. His emergence signified Nigeria’s renewed commitment to democratic values, human rights, and effective governance, marking the beginning of a transformative era. Under this democratic rebirth, Nigeria began its journey toward political and socio-economic reforms. The new political atmosphere allowed citizens to participate more freely in public discourse, express their opinions, and engage in the decision-making processes influencing national development (Segun, 2013). There was a resurgence of democratic institutions, with the legislative, judicial, and executive arms operating independently to uphold justice and fairness in governance (Segun, 2013). Following the return to democracy in 1999, Nigeria held successive elections in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, and most recently in 2023. Each of these elections has played a key role in shaping the nation’s democratic trajectory and political environment. However, persistent issues such as vote-rigging, violence, voter suppression, and allegations of electoral fraud remain a challenge as the government continues to work toward enhancing electoral credibility. Unfortunately, the 2019 and 2023 presidential elections were similarly marred by violent acts, with widespread allegations suggesting complicity among members of the ruling political elite (Ita, 2023). Therefore, this study aims to examine the trend and impact of electoral violence during the 2019 and 2023 general elections. 1.2 Statement of the Problem A universally accepted definition of electoral violence remains elusive, partly due to the controversial interpretation of the phrase “violence begets violence,” as advanced by Frantz Fanon during the anti-colonial struggles. Fanon’s perspective suggests that violence is often a reaction to earlier aggression, and those responding to initial attacks may not see themselves as aggressors, but as defenders. As a result, electoral violence can be described in various ways. It encompasses physical, psychological, administrative, legal, and structural forms of violence that occur throughout the electoral cycle. Such violence can be instigated by candidates, their supporters, sympathizers, security forces, or electoral officials (Adibe, 2023). These acts may occur before, during, or after elections and may take place within parties or between opposing parties. Although electoral violence occurs in democracies globally, developed democratic systems have devised ways to significantly reduce such occurrences. In contrast, African nations, and especially Nigeria, continue to experience widespread electoral violence due to the ambitions of political elites — both in power and in opposition — who are determined to maintain or seize control by any means. Unfortunately, the Nigerian government and other relevant stakeholders have failed to adopt decisive measures to curb electoral violence, punish offenders, or establish deterrents (Adibe, 2023). As a result, electoral violence remains prevalent, largely because perpetrators go unpunished, while victims suffer in silence. This violence undermines justice, violates fundamental rights, and poses a serious threat to human life. Tolerating electoral violence only weakens the foundations of democracy. Elections in Nigeria have not fostered a climate of constructive dialogue, rational debate, or compromise. Rather, politics has become a battleground of hostility, extreme rivalry, and oppression. Such a toxic environment discourages citizens from engaging in the democratic process. Therefore, this research investigates the trajectory and manifestations of electoral violence during the 2019 and 2023 general elections. 1.3 Objective of the Study The main objective of this study is to investigate the historical trajectory of electoral violence in Nigeria, specifically focusing on the 2019 and 2023 general elections. The specific objectives include: i. To examine the historical evolution of electoral violence in Nigeria leading up to the 2019 and 2023 elections. ii. To identify the immediate and underlying causes that triggered electoral violence during the 2019 and 2023 general elections. iii. To assess the patterns and dynamics of electoral violence observed in the 2019 and 2023 elections in Nigeria. iv. To determine the consequences and implications of the electoral violence experienced during the 2019 and 2023 general elections. 1.4 Research Questions This study will be guided by the following research questions: i. What historical developments led to electoral violence in Nigeria prior to the 2019 and 2023 elections? ii. What were the key factors and triggers of electoral violence during the 2019 and 2023 general elections? iii. How did electoral violence manifest itself during the 2019 and 2023 general elections in Nigeria? iv. What are the consequences of the electoral violence that occurred during the 2019 and 2023 general elections? 1.5 Significance of the Study This study is anticipated to be valuable to the following entities: INEC: The findings will highlight the weaknesses and obstacles faced by the Independent National Electoral Commission in conducting elections in Nigeria. The study will also propose strategies that INEC can employ to curb electoral violence. Nigerian Government: The study’s results will inform government agencies and policymakers about how electoral violence has discouraged active civic participation. It will recommend that the government collaborate with both local and international security agencies to ensure peaceful elections. Political Science Department: This study will contribute significantly to academic discourse and enrich the body of literature in political science. Academia: The academic community will benefit from the research findings, as they will add to the existing knowledge base on electoral violence and democratic practices in Nigeria. 1.6 Scope of the Study This research focuses on the history and nature of electoral violence in the 2019 and 2023 general elections in Nigeria. Specifically, the study will evaluate the historical roots of electoral violence leading up to these elections, investigate the triggers and causes behind the violent episodes, assess how violence played out during both electoral cycles, and determine the broader implications of such violence on Nigeria’s democratic system. 1.7 Organization of the study The study consisted of five chapters. Chapter one comprised background of the study  and a general introduction to the work. It included statement of problem of the study, highlighted the objectives of the study, the scope within which the research was conducted is also highlighted. An outline of how the work is organized is also detailed in the chapter one. The chapter two of the study reviewed Analyze the historical background of electoral violence in Nigeria leading up to the 2019 and 2023 general elections. Chapter three explore the specific triggers and underlying causes of electoral violence during the 2019 and 2023 general election. Chapter four  evaluate the dynamic patterns of electoral violence which has been perpetrated during the 2019 and 2023 general elections in Nigeria, ascertain the implications of electoral violence perpetrated during the 2019 and 2023 general elections in Nigeria and the chapter five is a summary of the major findings with recommendations and conclusion to the study.