THE IMPACT OF POVERTY ON ELECTORAL VIOLENCE IN NIGERIA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF 2011, 2015, AND 2019

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study Poverty can be examined from a variety of dimensions. As highlighted by the Development Assistance Committee (DAC, 2021), poverty involves multiple forms of deprivation that impact human capability, including issues such as food and consumption insecurity, poor health, limited education, lack of rights and voice, insecurity, loss of dignity, and inadequate employment opportunities. Rocha (2019) observes that the contrasting nature of poverty across different regions of the world has led to an extensive body of literature addressing how poverty is defined, measured, and tackled through policy. Nigeria, with its abundant natural, geographical, and socio-economic resources, possesses the potential for immense national wealth. Given this endowment, the country should rank among the most prosperous globally and not be grappling with such intense poverty levels. Nevertheless, Okpe and Abu (2019) insightfully remark that poverty levels in Nigeria have surged dramatically. Poverty is widespread and deeply affects a large portion of the population. Abiola and Olaopa (2018) argue that poverty in Nigeria is a stark and undeniable reality. It has led to consequences such as reduced life expectancy, widespread hunger, illiteracy, poor nutrition, disease, high unemployment, limited access to financial services, and a generally pessimistic outlook on life among citizens. It is alarming to note that despite numerous poverty alleviation strategies deployed by successive Nigerian governments, their actual impact on society remains minimal (Ovwasa, 2020; Adesopo, 2018; Omotola, 2018). Analysts have widely agreed that these programs have largely failed to meet their intended objectives. Empirical evidence suggests that poverty in Nigeria has been deliberately perpetuated by the country’s political elite, serving as a major hindrance to the nation's democratic and developmental progress. The increasing socioeconomic divide within Nigeria's political and economic systems further entrenches this widespread poverty. As a result, the most impoverished are also the most disgruntled, often engaging in various forms of unrest, including criminal activity. For instance, it has been observed that a significant number of violent acts during election periods are perpetrated by impoverished individuals, driven by both frustration and monetary incentives. Historically, Nigeria has conducted eleven presidential elections between 1954 and 2019, along with numerous regional, state, and local elections. Many of these elections have been plagued by violence both in the lead-up to and aftermath of the voting process. Nigeria gained independence in 1960, having held its first general election in 1959. The term "republic" in Nigerian political language refers to periods of civilian governance distinct from military regimes. Hence, the initial civilian government post-independence is known as the First Republic. Following the 1959 general elections, the Northern People's Congress (NPC) emerged as the ruling party, forming a coalition with the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), which represented the Eastern region, and the Action Group (AG), representing the Western region. NPC leader Ahmadu Bello remained Premier of the Northern Region, while Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa became Prime Minister. Michael Okpara became the Eastern Region Premier, while AG leader Obafemi Awolowo served as the opposition with Ladoke Akintola as Premier of the Western Region. Between 1979 and 1983, Nigeria experienced the Second Republic, marked by a newly adopted American-style presidential system, under President Shehu Shagari and Vice President Alex Ekwueme. However, the high hopes preceding the Second Republic were quickly dashed. Corruption was rampant, and public officials had free rein over national resources. Ogundiya (2019) asserts that this era marked the institutionalization of corruption in Nigeria, with government contracts exploited and corruption spreading rapidly. Although Nigeria drafted a new constitution in 1989, the Third Republic never fully materialized. General Ibrahim Babangida initially promised a transition to civilian rule by 1990, later postponed to 1993 citing national instability. M.K.O. Abiola was widely recognized as the clear winner of the 1993 election, yet Babangida annulled the results, citing ongoing legal challenges. This action triggered widespread unrest, resulting in over a hundred deaths, and marked the abrupt end of the Third Republic. Public outrage toward Babangida was widespread. Following General Sani Abacha’s death in 1998, General Abdulsalami Abubakar assumed leadership and, based on the draft constitution developed under Abacha’s regime, announced a plan for transitioning to civilian rule, which culminated on May 29, 1999. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) registered three political parties: the Alliance for Democracy (AD), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the All Peoples Party (APP), to contest in various electoral positions. Mirroring 1979, the military government had no desire to cling to power and aimed for a transparent, democratic electoral process. The APP and AD formed an alliance, presenting Chief Olu Falae (AD) as their presidential candidate with Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi (APP) as his running mate. The PDP nominated former military ruler General Olusegun Obasanjo with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as his vice-presidential candidate. Despite instances of violence, technical glitches, voter grievances, and procedural irregularities, the elections were generally accepted as free and fair, with Obasanjo emerging victorious. This marked the end of 16 years of continuous military rule and ushered in Nigeria’s return to democratic governance. General Obasanjo, now a civilian president, was praised for his resistance against Abacha's regime and for facilitating Nigeria’s earlier return to civilian rule in 1979. However, he inherited a nation mired in numerous challenges, including decaying infrastructure, a dysfunctional bureaucracy, and a military eager for compensation upon their return to the barracks. He swiftly removed several military officials holding political posts, established a human rights investigation commission, released many political detainees, and revoked various questionable licenses and contracts issued by prior regimes. On April 19, 2003, another presidential election was conducted. The incumbent, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo (PDP), faced off against Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) and Chief Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). Obasanjo was declared the winner, but the process was marred by significant allegations of manipulation. Observers from the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), the European Union, and several civil society and non-governmental organizations criticized the elections, pointing out that security forces and INEC officials appeared biased in favor of the ruling PDP. Reports from EU, US, and Commonwealth observer missions highlighted the lack of transparency by INEC throughout the electoral proceedings (Ajayi, 2017). On April 21, 2007, Nigeria held another presidential election. Several observer groups—both local and international—including the Domestic Election Observer Group (a coalition of civil society organizations), Human Rights Watch, and the European Union, labeled it as the worst election in Nigeria’s history. Despite being highly contested, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua was declared the winner amid widespread reports of electoral fraud and public condemnation from rival candidates and observers. There were also concerns about Yar’Adua’s health, particularly regarding rumored heart and kidney conditions. In November 2009, he fell seriously ill and was flown to Saudi Arabia for treatment. In his absence, Goodluck Jonathan assumed the role of acting president.. 1.3 Objectives of the Study The broad objective of this study is to examine the impact of poverty on electoral violence in Nigeria’s presidential elections of 2011, 2015, and 2019. Other specific objectives includes: i.To examine whether poverty played a role in instigating electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. ii.To ascertain the relative pattern of electoral violence which occurred during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. iii.To ascertain the significant relationship between poverty and electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. iv.To ascertain the impact of poverty as a catalyst to electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria v.To examine the effect of electoral violence on the democratic process of Nigeria. 1.4 Research Questions The study was guided by the following research questions: i.Did poverty play a role in instigating electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria? ii.Is there a relative pattern of electoral violence which occurred during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria? iii.Is there a significant relationship between poverty and electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria? iv.Was poverty a catalyst to electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria? v.What is the effect of electoral violence on the democratic process of Nigeria? 1.5 Hypotheses Ho: Poverty did not play a role in instigating electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. Ha: Poverty played a role in instigating electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. Ho: There is no significant relationship between poverty and electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. Ha: There is a significant relationship between poverty and electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. 1.6 Significance Of The Study It is believed that at the completion of the study, the findings of this study will be of great benefit in ameliorating the menace of electoral violence in Lagos state by proffering effective recommendation on the need to implement poverty alleviation programs in Nigeria, the study will also be of great importance to the care givers and parents on the need to educate their children on the nemesis of electoral violence. The study will also be of great importance to the department of political science as the findings of this study will contribute to the pool of existing literature in the subject matter. 1.7 Scope Of The Study This study will examine whether poverty played a role in instigating electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. The study will also ascertain the relative pattern of electoral violence which occurred during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. The study will further ascertain the significant relationship between poverty and electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. In addition, the study will ascertain the impact of poverty as a catalyst to electoral violence during the 2011, 2015 and 2019 general elections in Nigeria. Finally, the study will examine the effect of electoral violence on the democratic process of Nigeria. Hence, the study is delimited to Eti-Osa, lagos state. 1.8 Limitations Of The Study In the cause of the study, there were some factors which limited the scope of the study: Availability of research material: The research material available to the researcher is insufficient thereby limiting the study. Time Constraints: The researcher was involved in other departmental activities like seminars, attendance of lectures et.c which limited her time for the research but the researcher was able to meet up with the time assigned for the completion of the research work. Financial Constraints: The researcher was with limited funds, he cannot visit all the areas to get responses from respondents but she was able to get good information concerning the research topic Attitude of respondents: The attitude of the respondents to the study was not encouraging and this affected the study. 1.9 Definition Of Terms Poverty: This is the state of not having enough material possessions or income for a person's basic needs. Poverty may include social, economic, and political elements. Absolute poverty is the complete lack of the means necessary to meet basic personal needs, such as food, clothing, and shelter. Electoral violence: This is levied by political actors to purposefully influence the process and outcome of elections, and it involves coercive acts against humans, property, and infrastructure.