ASSESMENT ON ELITE-CENTRIC OPPOSITION POLITICS AND 2024 ELECTORAL REFORM IN NIGERIA: IMPLICATION FOR 2027 ELECTION

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background to the Study The health of a democratic polity is significantly influenced by the vibrancy and substance of its opposition politics. In established democracies, opposition parties serve as a counterbalance to the ruling government by critiquing policies, advocating for alternative programs, and pushing for institutional reforms. However, in emerging democracies like Nigeria, opposition politics is often riddled with elite manipulation, where party leaders prioritize personal or factional interests over national policy objectives or reform agendas (Odukoya, 2021; Aiyede, 2023). In recent electoral cycles, particularly the 2023 general elections and the ongoing post-election discourse into 2024, opposition politics in Nigeria has become increasingly centered around elite narratives. This elite-centric approach tends to obscure the structural reforms urgently needed in the country’s electoral process, such as enhancing transparency, voter inclusion, and institutional independence. Instead, opposition leaders have often personalized political struggles, reducing electoral reform advocacy to mere reactions to electoral losses or elite bargaining (Yagboyaju & Akinboye, 2022). The 2024 electoral reform discourse, spurred by the controversies surrounding the 2023 general elections, especially the presidential and gubernatorial contests, has underscored deep-rooted systemic flaws in Nigeria’s democratic process. Yet, rather than building coalitions to advance reform demands through civil society partnerships or policy dialogue, opposition politics has tilted towards legal contests, media wars, and elite consultations. These strategies, while sometimes necessary, do little to mobilize grassroots participation or sustain pressure for institutional reform (Omilusi, 2023). Additionally, intra-party disunity and the concentration of power in the hands of political godfathers within opposition parties have undermined their ability to provide a united and policy-driven front. Such elite capture has significantly weakened opposition's reform advocacy, as key decisions are often driven by considerations of personal political survival or future electoral calculations rather than public interest or democratic consolidation (Albert & Ogunmodede, 2020). In Abuja, Nigeria’s political capital and administrative nerve center, these trends are even more conspicuous. Political activities in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) reflect the broader national dynamics, but also demonstrate how proximity to federal power can shape elite behavior within opposition circles. Rather than galvanizing urban political consciousness around institutional reform, many opposition elites in Abuja focus on aligning with or contesting federal authorities for political leverage (Okoye, 2024). The elite-centric nature of opposition politics raises urgent questions about its effectiveness in strengthening Nigeria’s democratic trajectory. As electoral reforms continue to surface in public debates, especially regarding the role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the deployment of technology, and the integrity of electoral adjudication processes, the capacity of the opposition to channel these into meaningful legislative or institutional changes remains weak. This study investigates how elite-driven opposition politics has shaped the discourse and outcomes of the 2024 electoral reform efforts in Nigeria. 1.2 Statement of the Problem Despite Nigeria’s repeated cycles of elections since 1999, the quality of its democracy remains shallow. One critical factor is the role of opposition parties that have failed to transition from electoral contestation to institutional reform advocacy. In the aftermath of the 2023 elections, expectations were high that opposition leaders would champion reforms to address issues such as electronic transmission of results, voter suppression, and judicial independence. However, their actions have largely been reactionary and elite-centered, devoid of structural vision. In Abuja, elite opposition actors have used legal avenues, media engagements, and strategic alliances not to push for systemic reforms but to negotiate power or challenge election outcomes. Such strategies are disconnected from grassroots sentiments and the broader needs of the electorate who are demanding transparency, inclusion, and accountability in the electoral process (Olowojolu, 2022). The elite-centered politics, therefore, risks deepening citizen disillusionment with both opposition and democratic processes. The personalization of political opposition has also hindered policy coalitions necessary for pushing legislative changes. Reforms proposed in the Electoral Act 2022, such as biometric voter authentication, electronic collation, and diaspora voting, are being discussed mostly in elite circles, with little mobilization from opposition groups toward mass political education or civic pressure on lawmakers. This disconnect undermines reform and may entrench authoritarian resilience through democratic institutions (Ibrahim & Ojebode, 2023). Given Abuja’s strategic role in shaping national politics, it becomes imperative to assess how opposition elites in the FCT have contributed—or failed to contribute—to electoral reform discourse. This study thus fills a gap in analyzing the elite-opposition dynamics of electoral reform advocacy, specifically within the context of post-2023 developments heading into 2024. ________________________________________ 1.3 Objectives of the Study 1. To assess the nature and character of elite-centric opposition politics in Abuja during the post-2023 electoral period. 2. To evaluate the extent to which elite opposition actors have influenced the 2024 electoral reform agenda in Nigeria. 3. To examine the disconnect between elite-led opposition and grassroots political engagement in electoral reform advocacy. 4. To identify policy recommendations for restructuring opposition politics towards inclusive and reform-oriented democratic practice. 1.4 Research Questions 1. What are the defining features of elite-centric opposition politics in Abuja after the 2023 elections? 2. How have opposition elites contributed to or hindered the progress of the 2024 electoral reform process? 3. What factors explain the gap between elite-led opposition and grassroots engagement in reform advocacy? 4. What policy options can improve the role of the opposition in driving electoral reforms in Nigeria? 1.5 Research Hypotheses 1. Elite-centric opposition politics has significantly limited the effectiveness of electoral reform advocacy in Nigeria. 2. There is a statistically significant disconnect between elite-led political strategies and grassroots reform demands. 1.6 Significance of the Study This study contributes to scholarly understanding of the interplay between opposition politics and democratic reform in emerging democracies. It provides empirical insight into the role of political elites in shaping reform discourses, expanding literature in political science and democratic consolidation in sub-Saharan Africa. For political institutions and reform advocates, the findings offer guidance on how to recalibrate opposition strategies to reflect broader democratic imperatives. The study also serves as a critical tool for health-checking Nigeria’s opposition landscape, recommending practical ways to institutionalize reform-minded opposition behavior. To Nigerian society, particularly voters in urban centers like Abuja, this research underscores the importance of grassroots participation and civic vigilance in holding opposition actors accountable—not just in electoral contests but also in post-election reform processes. 1.7 Scope of the Study This study focuses on the post-2023 electoral reform efforts in Nigeria with specific attention to the role of opposition elites operating within Abuja. The study examines elite behavior, strategies, and engagement with reform discourse, using qualitative data from interviews, document reviews, and political discourse analysis. The study variables include: elite-centric opposition politics (independent variable), and the outcome of electoral reform advocacy (dependent variable). The population includes opposition politicians, civil society actors, electoral commission officers, and voters in Abuja. 1.8 Operational Definition of Terms Elite-Centric Politics: Political strategies and decisions dominated by a small group of influential leaders within opposition parties, often detached from mass-based concerns. Electoral Reform: Institutional and legal changes aimed at improving the credibility, transparency, and efficiency of electoral processes in Nigeria. Opposition Politics: Activities and strategies employed by political parties and actors not in power to critique, monitor, and influence governance and policy. Grassroots Engagement: Active involvement of ordinary citizens and local communities in political and reform processes, particularly at the non-elite level.