EXAMINE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT OF ECONOMIC STAGNATION ON THE NIGERIAN POPULATION: A CASE STUDY OF THE BOLA AHMED TINUBU ADMINISTRATION

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study Nigeria, like many other oil-dependent nations, has been grappling with the repercussions of fluctuating global oil prices. This economic instability became more pronounced when the price of Bonny Light crude oil plummeted from approximately $145.00 per barrel to around $40.00 per barrel. As highlighted by Adams (2023), this dramatic shift underscores the urgent need for strategic policy reforms aimed at diversifying the economy and reviving sustainable growth. The Nigerian economy is heavily reliant on oil, accounting for more than 60% of government revenue and over 90% of foreign exchange earnings. Furthermore, state governments derive over 90% of their revenues from federal allocations, with a minimal contribution from internally generated revenues. Without proactive and prudent economic management, such dependence on oil revenues exposes all tiers of government—local, state, and federal—to potentially devastating fiscal shocks. Given this, the country’s economic health remains highly susceptible to global financial downturns. According to Uzochi (2023), Nigeria has faced several major economic crises in the 21st century, notably the 2008 global financial meltdown and the 2014 oil price crash. The latter was particularly damaging, plunging the economy into stagnation in 2016—its first contraction in over twenty years (World Bank, 2017). The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated these economic challenges by dramatically reducing global demand for oil, thereby shrinking government revenues and imposing additional burdens on households and businesses (Ozili, 2020). These economic downturns have had far-reaching socio-economic consequences. Unemployment and poverty levels have escalated, with the National Bureau of Statistics (2019) reporting that over 40% of Nigerians live below the poverty line. The resulting decline in economic activity has led businesses to either halt hiring or downsize their workforce, aggravating social instability. Economic stagnation often discourages foreign direct investment (FDI), as investors become hesitant to invest in markets marked by uncertainty and slow growth. This lack of capital inflow further reinforces the cycle of stagnation (Egbetokun, Adeniyi, & Siyanbola, 2020). Simultaneously, inflation has eroded the purchasing power of consumers, making it increasingly difficult for ordinary Nigerians to afford basic necessities. These socio-economic pressures have given rise to widespread discontent, evidenced by growing civil unrest and protests (International Crisis Group, 2021). The consequences of economic stagnation are also reflected in diminished Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, particularly in critical sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and services (World Bank, 2017). This stagnation hampers the nation’s capacity to generate wealth and improve citizens’ living standards. When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, Nigeria was already grappling with several entrenched social and economic challenges. These included escalating insecurity, particularly in the northwest due to banditry and kidnappings, ongoing insurgencies in the northeast, and separatist agitations in the southeast. Furthermore, the administration has had to contend with the lingering effects of past policy missteps. Since taking office, the Tinubu administration has initiated several key reforms aimed at stabilising macroeconomic conditions. These include partial removal of the petrol subsidy and reforms in the foreign exchange (FX) market, leading to a more unified FX rate system aligned with market realities. To cushion the inflationary effects of these reforms on vulnerable populations, the government introduced temporary cash transfers targeting 15 million households. Efforts are also being made to strengthen monetary policy and refocus the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on its core mandate of price stability. While the initial shocks of these reforms are expected to taper off, they are anticipated to usher in a period of gradual macroeconomic stabilisation and modest non-oil sector growth. The oil sector is projected to stabilise as well, but broader structural reforms will be vital to achieving more robust and inclusive growth. Exchange rate liberalisation is likely to improve both fiscal and external balances, while tighter monetary policy could eventually moderate inflation. Despite these efforts, projections indicate that poverty levels may continue to rise in 2024 and 2025, with a possible stabilisation by 2026. However, Nigeria’s economic outlook remains fraught with risks, including potential delays or reversals in policy implementation, ineffective monetary tightening, failure to reform petrol pricing, and insufficient non-oil revenue generation. Additional threats such as increasing insecurity, adverse climate conditions, and public dissatisfaction with inflation could further hinder economic recovery. Therefore, this study seeks to evaluate the psychological effects of economic stagnation on the Nigerian populace. 1.2 Statement of the Problem In recent times, Nigerians have experienced growing psychological distress—manifesting in heightened levels of stress, anxiety, depression, and other mental health challenges—as a result of prolonged economic uncertainty and hardship. The socio-economic difficulties stemming from stagnation have significantly impacted the mental well-being of the population. The instability of incomes, precarious employment conditions, and the difficulty in meeting basic needs foster a deep sense of insecurity. Furthermore, the looming threat of job loss, compounded by the rising cost of living, has led to chronic stress and emotional strain (Eze et al., 2023). Adegoke and Olowookere (2023) contend that societal stigma associated with unemployment and poverty contributes to social isolation and weakens communal support systems, thereby worsening mental health outcomes. Young people have been particularly affected by the economic downturn. High unemployment rates and limited opportunities have cultivated widespread disillusionment and frustration among Nigerian youth. With few productive outlets for their energy and aspirations, many young individuals become increasingly vulnerable to negative influences—posing risks to national security and societal cohesion (Ogunleye, 2023). In response to these challenges, the Tinubu administration has introduced several economic policy measures aimed at fostering macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. These include fiscal reforms to enhance revenue mobilisation, strategies to attract foreign investment, and efforts to create a more conducive business environment. The administration also seeks to address infrastructure deficits through public-private partnerships and targeted investments in strategic sectors (Vanguard, 2024). Given the gravity of these conditions, this study is therefore designed to assess the psychological effects of economic stagnation on the Nigerian populace, with a particular focus on the ongoing socio-economic reforms under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.  1.3  Objectives of the Study The main purpose of this study is toExamine the Psychological Impact of Economic Stagnation on the Nigerian Population: A Case Study of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Administration. Specifically, the study will; i.Investigate on the level of economic stagnation experience by Nigeria citizens. ii.Investigate whether economic stagnation has a significant impact on the psychological well-being of Nigeria citizens. iii.Investigate the factors associated with economic stagnation in Nigeria. iv.Evaluate the psychological impact of economic stagnation on Nigerians. 1.4  Research Questions The following questions have been prepared for the study: i.What is the level of economic stagnation experienced by Nigerian citizens? ii.Does economic stagnation have a significant impact on the psychological well-being of Nigerian citizens? iii.What are the factors associated with economic stagnation in Nigeria? iv.What is the psychological impact of economic stagnation on Nigerians? 1.5 Research Hypotheses H0: Economic stagnation has no significant effect on Nigerian citizens. Ha: Economic stagnation has significant effect on Nigerian citizens. 1.6 Significance of the Study With the help of the study findings, policymakers will have enhanced capabilities to formulate economic policies that not only strive to promote growth but also take into account the psychological well-being of the population during times of economic stagnation. This approach will aid in developing all-encompassing solutions that tackle both economic and psychological well-being, ultimately resulting in more resilient communities.  This study will provide mental health practitioners with valuable insights into the specific pressures experienced by Nigerians during periods of economic stagnation, enhancing their understanding of the subject. Acquiring this knowledge will empower individuals to create and execute more efficient therapy methods and community-centered mental health initiatives that are customised to meet the unique requirements of those impacted. Furthermore, community leaders and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) will find the findings to be of great value in their endeavours to assist disadvantaged populations.  Nevertheless, subsequent researchers will use it as a literature review. This means that other students who may decide to conduct studies in this area will have the opportunity to use this study as available literature that can be subjected to critical review. Invariably, the result of the study contributes immensely to the body of academic knowledge with regard to the  psychological effects of economic stagnation on Nigerian populace. 1.7 Scope of the study    The scope of this study is boarded on the Psychological Impact of Economic Stagnation on the Nigerian Population: A Case Study of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Administration. Empirically, the study will investigate on the level of economic stagnation experience by Nigeria citizens, whether economic stagnation has a significant impact on the psychological well-being,  the factors associated with economic stagnation and evaluate the psychological impact of economic stagnation. Geographically, the study will be delimited to residents of Lagos state. 1.8 Limitation of the study In the course of carrying out this study, the researcher experienced some constraints, which included time constraints, financial constraints, language barriers, and the attitude of the respondents. In addition, there was the element of researcher bias. Here, the researcher possessed some biases that may have been reflected in the way the data was collected, the type of people interviewed or sampled, and how the data gathered was interpreted thereafter. The potential for all this to influence the findings and conclusions could not be downplayed. More so, the findings of this study are limited to the sample population in the study area, hence they may not be suitable for use in comparison to other schools, local governments, states, and other countries in the world.  1.9 Definition of Terms Economic stagnation: refers to a prolonged period of slow or negligible growth in an economy. Economic:  relates to the economy, which is the system of production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services in a particular country or region.