ECONOMIC RECESSION AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF NIGERIA'S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES UNDER THE ADMINISTRATION OF PRESIDENT BOLA AHMED TINUBU

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study Agriculture remains the cornerstone of economic development, growth, and poverty alleviation in developing nations. It is widely recognized as a fundamental driver and solution to economic prosperity. As noted by Gunner (2019), the outcome of the quest for long-term economic growth in many nations will be determined within the agricultural sector. Yet, how agriculture directly contributes to sustained prosperity continues to be a subject of debate among economists and development experts. Historically, Nigeria’s economy was heavily reliant on agriculture, particularly during the early 1960s, when it served as the country’s economic backbone. It was regarded as the principal engine of growth and development. To emphasize the sector's significance, agriculture was incorporated into the Millennium Development Goals as a key component in efforts to eradicate poverty in Nigeria (Ogundipe et al., 2020). In most developing economies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, agriculture plays a dominant role in providing food, employment, raw materials for industries, foreign exchange earnings through exports, and added value through processing (Izu, 2021). Prior to the discovery and commercial exploitation of crude oil, agriculture served as the primary source of revenue for Nigeria. However, with the shift in focus to the oil sector, the agricultural sector suffered significant neglect. This neglect has contributed to economic instability, particularly during periods of global oil price volatility, often resulting in economic recessions. This aligns with the findings of Ifabiyi et al. (2018), who observed that many young Nigerians increasingly prefer white-collar jobs over agricultural work, despite the limited availability of such jobs. This preference has contributed to the weakening of Nigeria’s agricultural base, thereby exacerbating economic challenges. Odinta (2017) defines a recession as a phase in the economic cycle characterized by a broad-based decline in economic activity lasting for at least two consecutive quarters (six months or more). According to Ifabiyi et al. (2018), economic recession leads to reduced financial liquidity, making it difficult for farmers to afford essential agricultural inputs due to inflation. In addition, households that rely on off-farm incomes also experience a decline in earnings, while reductions in tax revenues negatively impact local government services and rural employment. Consequently, economic recessions have intensified poverty among rural farming communities, as declining incomes reduce their ability to invest in health, education, and other basic necessities. Despite Nigeria’s abundance of arable land, favorable climate, and a sizable labor force, the agricultural sector continues to grapple with persistent challenges. These include outdated farming techniques, poor input quality, limited access to modern equipment, and inadequate institutional support. The root causes of these issues include weak government policy, insufficient investment, lack of awareness, poverty, inadequate research, and rising costs of production inputs (Nwokocha et al., 2019). Economic downturns further aggravate these difficulties, reducing agricultural output and threatening national food security. The agricultural sector is central to Nigeria’s economic resilience, contributing significantly to gross domestic product (GDP), food production, and employment (Inyene et al., 2021). However, economic recessions present formidable obstacles to the sector's sustainability, adversely affecting investment levels, productivity, and rural livelihoods. Since taking office in 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has placed emphasis on revitalizing agriculture as a key pillar of his administration’s economic diversification agenda. His administration has introduced various reforms and initiatives aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity, strengthening value chains, and improving the livelihoods of rural populations. These efforts are especially critical in times of economic downturn, as sustainable agricultural practices are essential to mitigating the negative impacts of recessions. Accordingly, this study seeks to explore the challenges and opportunities surrounding the sustainability of Nigeria’s agricultural sector during economic recession, with a particular focus on the policies and impacts of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. 1.2 Statement of the Problem Agriculture plays a vital role in Nigeria’s economy, contributing substantially to employment, food supply, and GDP. The country is endowed with diverse agro-ecological zones conducive to cultivating a wide range of crops and raising livestock. Prominent agricultural commodities include cassava, yams, maize, rice, cocoa, palm oil, sorghum, and livestock. Despite this potential, numerous challenges continue to hinder the sector's productivity and sustainability. Describing Nigeria as an agrarian economy does not imply that it possesses a highly developed agricultural system (Henry et al., 2022). The dominant mode of farming in Nigeria remains subsistence or smallholder agriculture. While agriculture sustains the livelihoods of many Nigerians, especially in rural areas, most farmers continue to depend on traditional, labor-intensive methods. Though these methods are shaped by local knowledge and cultural practices, they often restrict output and hinder progress toward food security (Segun et al., 2020). Denrele (2019) observes that much of Nigeria’s agriculture still relies on outdated practices, low levels of mechanization, rain-fed irrigation systems, and inefficient crop production. Akan (2023) supports this assertion, noting that these traditional approaches typically result in lower productivity compared to modern farming systems. Contributing factors include limited access to improved seed varieties, insufficient soil fertility management, and minimal use of fertilizers and pesticides. Moreover, Esuene (2023) identifies the lack of rural infrastructure as a critical barrier to productivity and food security. Many agricultural regions are inaccessible due to poorly maintained road networks, which increase transportation costs and diminish profit margins for farmers while simultaneously raising food prices for consumers (Akala, 2021). Storage is another significant challenge. Many rural communities lack adequate storage facilities such as silos and cold storage units. According to Akon (2022), this leads to post-harvest losses, especially for perishable commodities, reducing food availability and farmer incomes. Poor storage also compromises the nutritional quality and market value of food items (Femi et al., 2021). To achieve improved productivity, sustainable food systems, and long-term food security, Nigeria must address these persistent challenges. Under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, it becomes imperative to adopt modern agricultural technologies, strengthen rural infrastructure, and invest in policy-driven solutions aimed at revitalizing the agricultural sector. Hence, this study is both timely and necessary. 1.3 Objectives of the study The primary objective of this study is to investigate Economic Recession and the Sustainability of Nigeria's Agricultural Sector: Challenges and Opportunities under the Administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Specific objectives of this study are to: i.To determine the effects of economic recession on agricultural productivity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration ii.To identify challenges faced by agricultural sector during recession under President Tinubu administration. iii.To identify potential strategies for enhancing agricultural sustainability under President Tinubu administration. 1.4 Research Questions The following research questions which are in line with the objectives of this study will be answered in this study: i.What are the effects of economic recession on agricultural productivity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration? ii.What are the challenges faced by agricultural sector during recession under President Tinubu administration? iii.What are the potential strategies for enhancing agricultural sustainability under President Tinubu administration? 1.5 Research Hypothesis To determine the effectiveness of this study, the following research null hypotheses will be formulated to guide the study and it will be tested at 0.05% levels of significance.: Ho: The extent of recession in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration is low. Ha: The extent of recession in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration is high. 1.6 Significance of the study An examination of the effects of economic recession on the long-term viability of Nigeria's agriculture sector during President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration is essential for guiding the formulation of policies that promote food security, rural livelihoods, economic resilience, and sustainable development. The study will establish a fundamental reference point for the general public, smallholder farmers, policy officials, students, and intellectuals. Agriculture is a fundamental pillar of Nigeria's economy, serving as a major source of employment and guaranteeing food security for a significant portion of the population. During periods of economic downturn, comprehending the impact on the agriculture industry can provide insight on weaknesses in food production and delivery systems. A substantial segment of Nigeria's populace depends on agriculture as their primary source of income, particularly in rural regions. An examination of the sustainability of the sector during economic downturns can shed light on the difficulties experienced by rural communities and uncover potential ways to strengthen their ability to recover. Moreover, smallholder farmers form a substantial proportion of Nigeria's agricultural industry. Analyzing the effects of recessions on smallholder agriculture's production, income, and resource availability can provide valuable insights for designing policies and programmes to support this sector. The study can enhance comprehension of the enduring economic ramifications of recessions on the agriculture sector, encompassing effects on employment, rural development, and economic diversification. Additionally, the results of the study can provide valuable insights for developing evidence-based policies that can help sustain the agriculture sector during periods of economic decline. This include policies pertaining to market entry, the establishment of infrastructure, subsidies for inputs, and financial support for agriculture. Moreover, future researchers will employ it as a comprehensive analysis of the existing corpus of literature. As a result, other students who are interested in studying this subject will have the chance to use this work as trustworthy information that can be thoroughly assessed.  1.7 Scope of the study Broadly, this study focus is to critically assess economic recession and agriculture sector sustainability in Nigeria: challenges and opportunities (based on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration). Specifically, this study seeks to evaluate the extent of recession in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration and determine the effects of economic recession on agricultural productivity in Nigeria under President Tinubu administration.  Further, this study will focus on identifying challenges faced by agricultural sector during recession under President Tinubu administration and it also seeks to identify potential opportunities for enhancing agricultural sustainability. Geographically, this study will be carried out among Farmers in Benue State. 1.8 Limitations of the study As is common in all human endeavours, the researchers faced minor limitations when conducting the study. The main limitation was the lack of extensive literature on the subject, as there is limited data available for economic recession and agriculture sector sustainability in Nigeria: challenges and opportunities (based on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration). Consequently, a significant amount of time and effort was necessary to locate the appropriate materials, books, or information and to gather data.  Additionally, this study is constrained by its small sample size and narrow geographical scope, focusing just on Nigeria. Consequently, the results of this study are not applicable for generalization, thereby leaving room for further research.  Additionally, the researcher's limitations were primarily due to financial constraints, as they are a student and do not have a source of income to sustain themselves. It was challenging to afford transportation expenses to and from the study location due to the high cost of transportation, which is influenced by inflation in Nigeria today. Furthermore, the researcher faced a time constraint due to the need to do this research while also fulfilling the obligations of attending lectures and other educational activities. 1.9 Definition of terms Economic recession: Economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales Inflation: Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country. Vulnerable population: Vulnerable populations are individuals who are at greater risk of poor physical and social health status. They are considered vulnerable because of disparities in physical, economic, and social health status when compared with the dominant population.